Rapid Advance of Syrian Rebels in Homs and March Toward Damascus

BLUF:

• Syrian rebels, primarily from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have captured Homs after less than a day of fighting.
• The rebels have now set their sights on Damascus, signaling a potential end to Assad’s rule.
• The Syrian army has withdrawn from key areas, suggesting a significant collapse of government defenses.

SITUATION:On December 7, 2024, Syrian insurgents, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), declared full control over the strategic city of Homs following a swift military operation. This victory has significantly bolstered the rebels’ momentum, as they are now advancing toward the capital, Damascus. Celebratory gunfire and the destruction of Assad’s imagery in Homs signal a profound shift in the control of central Syria.

BACKGROUND:The Syrian Civil War, which began in 2011, has seen a dramatic resurgence of rebel activity in recent weeks. HTS, formerly affiliated with Al-Qaeda, has been at the forefront of this new offensive. After capturing Aleppo and Hama, the rebels have now moved to secure Homs, a city pivotal for its strategic location on major transport routes, particularly the highway linking Damascus to the coastal strongholds of Assad’s Alawite sect. The control of Homs effectively isolates Damascus from these coastal regions, where Russia maintains significant military bases.

OBJECTIVE:The primary aim of the rebel forces appears to be the complete overthrow of the Assad regime. By securing Homs, they aim to disrupt government supply lines, isolate Damascus, and force a capitulation or retreat of regime forces. The capture of Damascus would be a symbolic and strategic victory, potentially leading to the collapse of Assad’s government.

POLITICAL & OPERATIONAL IMPLICATIONS:

• Political: The fall of Homs and the advance toward Damascus could lead to the end of Assad’s 24-year rule, reshaping the political landscape of Syria and the Middle East. This development might also influence regional powers like Turkey, Iran, and Russia, who have vested interests in Syria’s stability or instability.
• Operational: The rapid advance suggests a significant degradation of Assad’s military capabilities, possibly due to the withdrawal of support from allies like Russia and Iran, who are currently engaged in other conflicts. This could embolden other opposition groups within Syria to rise up, potentially leading to a fragmented post-Assad governance scenario.

NUANCES & ASSUMPTIONS:

• Nuances: HTS’s control over Homs could lead to concerns about governance by a group once linked with Al-Qaeda, potentially causing international apprehension about security and human rights in the region.
• Assumptions: It is assumed that the lack of significant resistance in Homs indicates either a strategic retreat by Assad’s forces or a severe depletion of their capabilities. Furthermore, the assumption is that the international community’s response might be tempered by geopolitical considerations, particularly regarding the influence of external powers like Russia and Turkey.

NEXT STEPS:

• HTS and allied rebel groups are expected to continue their push toward Damascus, potentially engaging in urban warfare or negotiating further defections from Assad’s forces.
• International actors might call for emergency meetings or consider new diplomatic initiatives to address the rapid changes on the ground.
• Local populations in Damascus and surrounding areas might experience increased civilian displacement, with humanitarian corridors possibly needed.

CONCLUSION:The capture of Homs by Syrian rebels marks a critical juncture in the Syrian conflict, potentially heralding the end of Assad’s regime. The strategic implications of this victory stretch beyond military gains, affecting regional politics and international relations. The situation remains fluid, with the next few days being crucial for determining the future direction of the Syrian conflict.

TAKE HOME TALKING POINTS:

1. Homs Captured: Syrian rebels have taken Homs, marking a significant victory in their campaign against Assad.
2. Damascus in Sight: The rebels are now advancing toward Damascus, with the potential to overthrow the Assad government.
3. Government Collapse: The rapid withdrawal of Assad’s forces from Homs indicates a possible imminent collapse or retreat strategy.
4. Strategic Isolation: Control of Homs isolates Damascus from the coast, complicating logistics for Assad’s forces.
5. International Concerns: The rise of HTS raises questions about future governance and stability in Syria, with implications for international security policies.